病毒专家预计春季将恢复常态

中国适时优化了 COVID-19 应对措施, 在 Omicron 变异死亡率降低和国家医疗保健系统准备工作加强的情况下, 专家周末表示.

他们警告说，该国将面临 “COVID-19 感染浪潮” 整个冬天, but added that the overall epidemic situation is controllable and a return to full normalcy can be expected by spring.

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the rate of severe and critical cases plummeted from 16.47 percent in 2020 到 3.32 percent last year. By Dec 5, the rate further dropped to 0.18 百分.

“The past three years have been very difficult. We have waited for the virus to become less virulent and less of a threat to people’s health. We have also earned plenty of time to expand our vaccination reach and build our capacity to cope with the disease,” he said at a forum held on Saturday.

On Dec 7, China released a set of 10 optimized COVID-19 rules, 包括允许无症状病例和症状较轻的患者在家隔离，并限制大规模检测的需要.

吴说，这些政策调整是在全球每周死亡人数创下最低水平并保持在以下水平时推出的 10,000 连续几周.

“如果这些措施早点宣布, 说今年年初, 大陆会看到 866,000 到 1.039 还有 100 万人死亡,” 他说.

Zeng Guang, 中国疾病预防控制中心前研究员, observed that the COVID-19 infection has changed with time. While its transmissibility has increased, its ability to cause death has declined.

“这 10 new measures, which are also meant to facilitate opening-up, couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment,” he said during another online event on Saturday.

The high transmissibility rate of the Omicron variant, the cold weather and the waning immunity from vaccination are all contributing to the rising number of infections in many regions, Zeng said.

“Beijing and many local governments have launched targeted emergency measures to prevent overstretching of their local medical systems. The overall situation is under control and is set to improve,” 他补充说.

Chief epidemiologist Wu said that the mainland will likely be hit by three more waves of COVID-19 infection in the coming months. Large cities are already facing the first wave, which began in mid-December and will continue till mid-January.

春节假期农民工出行将助长第二波，第三波将在这些工人在 2 月下旬至 3 月中旬返回工作场所时出现.

“大约 10 到 30 今年冬天中国人将有百分之几被感染, 死亡率将从 0.09 到 0.16 百分,” 他说.

加强准备, 吴建议接种 COVID-19 疫苗加强针, 保持手部卫生和戴口罩. 加大力度保护弱势群体, 他说.

Zhang Boli, 顶级中医专家、中国工程院院士, 表示到春季疫情有望趋于稳定, 在 1 月和 2 月达到高峰后, 人们将能够恢复正常生活.

Liang Wannian, 国家卫健委高级专家, 表示应密切监测严重病例的数量和医院的压力，以绘制爆发的可能性.

梁说，当前的紧迫任务包括提高老年人和慢性病患者的疫苗接种率, 储备医疗设备, 加强医院能力并加强对病毒突变的监测.

来源: 中国日报