疫苗來了, 疫情什麼時候結束?

疫苗來了, 疫情什麼時候結束?

The progress of vaccines has given people new hope. The next natural question is: the vaccine has come, 疫情什麼時候結束? When will our lives return to normal?

十二月 02, 2020
來源: New York Chinese Information Network

Following Pfizer/BioNTech’s application for an emergency use authorization (EUA) for its vaccine to the U.S. 食品和藥物管理局 (食品藥品監督管理局) last week, today (十一月 30) American biotech company Moderna also applied for its vaccine The same EUA application was filed. Both the final data of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial and the interim data of the Moderna trial showed approximately 95% effectiveness. This is an impressive achievement far beyond the predictions of most scientists.

The progress of vaccines has given people who are in the midst of the epidemic see new hope. The next natural question is: 疫情什麼時候結束? When will our lives return to normal?

It is also based on the good news of vaccines that former US FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that the US is currently facing “the last round of infection surge”, “I believe the situation in 2021 It will get better”. But the problem is that Americans will need to work hard to survive the next two or three months. 否則, according to his prediction, by the end of 2020, one-third of the people may be infected with the new crown, which means that there will be thousands of people. Wan’s people died before the dawn.

The next question is vaccination

Pfizer will be able to produce 50 million doses by the end of this year, two doses of vaccine can immunize 25 million people, and the first batch of vaccines will be supplied to the United States. The company has begun working with US airlines, regulatory agencies, and airports to discuss the possibility of delivering vaccines in large quantities. The Wall Street Journal reported that the first batch of Pfizer vaccines had arrived in Chicago from Belgium on Friday.

Moderna expects that by the end of this year, it will be able to supply 20 million doses to the United States, which will also enable 10 million people to be immunized.

Since the initial supply of vaccines is limited and cannot be delivered to remote areas of the United States, it is estimated that once the vaccine is approved in mid-December, medical staff in large and medium-sized cities and elderly people in nursing homes will be the first group to be vaccinated. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) plan will have the staff of five federal agencies, including the Bureau of Prisons, the Department of Defense, the State Department, the Indian Health Service, and the Veterans Health Administration. These agencies will also give priority to those over 70 years old The elderly and employees with basic diseases are vaccinated. The CDC said, 例如, in the State Council, a 70-year-old diplomat who needs to travel overseas frequently should belong to the first echelon to obtain the vaccine.

The model created by scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention calculated that the actual number of infections was about 8 times the reported number. Then the actual number of new coronavirus infections in the United States at the end of September was close to 53 百萬. It is currently possible Nearly 100 百萬, the infected population reached 29%.

This estimate is similar to the conclusion of a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). MIT estimates that as of October 30, 2020, the cumulative number of cases and deaths are 8.5 times and 1.4 times that of the official report, 分別. Over time, the fatality rate from infection has dropped significantly.